Modeling the Association between Student Support Indicators and Tertiary Education Outcomes in Online Higher Education: Evidence from 60 Developing Economies (2018-2024)

Student Support and Online Education Outcomes

Abstract

This study examines the association between macro-level student support indicators and tertiary education outcomes in online higher education contexts across 60 developing economies from 2018 to 2024. Using panel data comprising 420 country-year observations and acknowledging that the constructs are operationalized through national-level proxy indicators drawn from international databases, we employ Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to examine four hypothesized associations: academic advising-related indicators and student retention, digital literacy infrastructure and learner engagement, psychosocial support proxies and student persistence, and institutional responsiveness and overall academic success. Our theoretical framework integrates the Technology Acceptance Model, Resource-Based View, and Institutional Theory. Results indicate that all four associations are statistically significant (p < 0.001). Academic advising-related indicators exhibit the strongest positive association with student retention (beta = 1.007, t = 43.783), followed by psychosocial support proxies with persistence (beta = 0.932, t = 33.286). The model explains 84.6% of the variance in academic success outcomes with strong predictive relevance (Q-squared = 0.810). Regional analysis reveals significant disparities, with Latin America and the Caribbean achieving the highest completion rates (58.42%), while Sub-Saharan Africa records the lowest (38.94%). Important limitations include the use of macro-level proxy indicators rather than direct institutional-level measures, the correlational (non-causal) nature of the design, and the risk of ecological fallacy in interpreting country-level findings. Notwithstanding these limitations, findings suggest that investment in advisory staffing, digital infrastructure, social protection, and institutional governance capacity may be positively associated with tertiary education outcomes. Policymakers are encouraged to prioritize comprehensive and context-specific support service frameworks when designing strategies to improve educational attainment in developing economies.